{"id":10433,"date":"2020-04-29T13:42:02","date_gmt":"2020-04-29T04:42:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/?p=10433"},"modified":"2020-04-30T00:59:12","modified_gmt":"2020-04-29T15:59:12","slug":"%e3%83%97%e3%83%ad%e3%82%b0%e3%83%a9%e3%83%9e%e3%81%ab%e3%82%82%e3%82%8f%e3%81%8b%e3%82%8b-seir-%e3%83%a2%e3%83%87%e3%83%ab%e3%82%b7%e3%83%9f%e3%83%a5%e3%83%ac%e3%83%bc%e3%82%b7%e3%83%a7%e3%83%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/archives\/10433","title":{"rendered":"\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30de\u306b\u3082\u308f\u304b\u308b SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6700\u521d\u306b\u300cSEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300d\u3092\u77e5\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f2\u6708\u672b\u306e\u9803\u3067\u3059\u3002\u307e\u3060\u30c0\u30a4\u30e4\u30e2\u30f3\u30c9\u30fb\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30bb\u30b9\u53f7\u3067\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u304c\u6d41\u884c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u9803\u3067\u6771\u4eac\u90fd\u306b\u3082\u4ed6\u306e\u90fd\u5e02\u3082\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u3082\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u3082\u305d\u308c\u307b\u3069\u554f\u984c\u306b\u306f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u306e\u6b66\u6f22\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u304b\u3089\u300c\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u304c\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u4e26\u307f\u3067\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\uff08\u5f53\u6642\u306f\u30b9\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30b9\u30d7\u30ec\u30c3\u30c0\u30fc\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7528\u8a9e\u304c\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\uff09\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6761\u4ef6\u304c\u63c3\u3046\u3068\u5341\u6570\u500d\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u300d\u3053\u3068\u304c\u6307\u6458\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3055\u3066\u3001\u79c1\u81ea\u8eab\u306f\u4e00\u4ecb\u306e\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30de\u306a\u306e\u3067\u75ab\u5b66\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001SEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u793a\u3059\u901a\u308a\u3001\u6570\u7406\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u75ab\u5b66\u304c\u3042\u308a\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u4f1a\u8b70\u306e\u897f\u6d66\u6559\u6388\u304c\u300c\u6570\u7406\u300d\u3092\u901a\u3057\u3066\u73fe\u8c61\u3092\u89e3\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3053\u308d\u306b\u5171\u611f\u3092\u899a\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002\u540c\u6642\u306b\u3001\u30b3\u30f3\u30d4\u30e5\u30fc\u30bf\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3084\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u306e\u5206\u91ce\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u75ab\u5b66\u306e\u300cSEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300d\u3092\u89e3\u304f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30bf\u30a4\u30c8\u30eb\u306b\u300c\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30de\u306b\u3082\u308f\u304b\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a00\u8449\u3092\u5165\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u6562\u3048\u3066\u8a00\u3048\u3070\u300c\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30de\u3060\u304b\u3089\u5206\u304b\u308b SEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5165\u9580\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3067\u3059\u3002SEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u81ea\u4f53\u306f\u5927\u5b66\u306e\uff11\u5e74\u3050\u3089\u3044\u3067\u5b66\u3079\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u75ab\u5b66\u306e\u5165\u9580\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u306f\u6570\u3005\u306e\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u306e\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u5206\u6790\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u4e3b\u306a\u8981\u56e0\uff08\u539f\u56e0\uff09\u7279\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u3001\u73fe\u8c61\u3092\u6982\u7565\u3092\u628a\u63e1\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3068\u306f\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u308f\u3051\u3067\u3001\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u3057\u305f\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30e0\uff08JS\uff09\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001SEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u52d5\u4f5c\u3092\u5b9f\u9a13\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u304c\u3053\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u306e\u4e3b\u65e8\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3001\u66f8\u304f\u3068\u304d\u306e\u52b9\u7387\u3092\u91cd\u3093\u3058\u3066\u53e3\u8abf\u304c\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u98a8\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3054\u5bb9\u8d66\u3092\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"seir%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%81%A8%E3%81%AF%E4%BD%95%E3%81%8B\">SEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u306f\u4f55\u304b\uff1f<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_Model\">Compartmental models in epidemiology &#8211; Wikipedia<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>SEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3001\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u75ab\u75c5\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306b\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u30924\u3064\u306b\u5206\u3051\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff08S:Susceptible\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\uff08E:Exposed\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u767a\u75c7\u4e2d\uff08I:Infectious\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u514d\u75ab\u7372\u5f97\u8005\uff08R:Recoverd\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>SEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u30014\u3064\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u306b\u5206\u304b\u308c\u3066\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u304c\u76f4\u7dda\u7684\u306b\u9077\u79fb\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_01org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_01thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>UML\u3067\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u30b9\u30c6\u30fc\u30c8\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\uff08\u72b6\u614b\u9077\u79fb\u56f3\uff09\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3060\u3002\uff14\u3064\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u304c\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3001\u9077\u79fb\u306f\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e3\u3064\u306e\u7dda\u3060\u3051\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304b\u3089\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d<\/li>\n<li>\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u304b\u3089\u767a\u75c7\u4e2d<\/li>\n<li>\u767a\u75c7\u4e2d\u304b\u3089\u514d\u75ab\u7372\u5f97\u8005<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u306f\u521d\u671f\u72b6\u614b\u3067\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u306a\u72b6\u614b\u3002\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u3067\u8a00\u3048\u3070\u3001\u4eca\u5e74\u306e\u6d41\u884c\u306b\u7f79\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u4eba\u3060\u3002<br \/>\n\u3053\u306e\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304c\u8ab0\u304b\u3089\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306e\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u3092\u8cb0\u3046\u3068\u3001\u307e\u305a\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u8ab0\u306b\u3046\u3064\u3059\u8a33\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u671f\u9593\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3092\u8a00\u3046\u3002<br \/>\n\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u304c\u904e\u304e\u308b\u3068\u3001\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306b\u79fb\u884c\u3057\u3066\u8ab0\u304b\u3092\u611f\u67d3\u3055\u305b\u308b\u72b6\u614b\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u4f53\u304c\u52d5\u304b\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u5bb6\u306b\u5fc5\u7136\u7684\u306b\u5bb6\u306b\u7c60\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u3002<br \/>\n\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u304c\u904e\u304e\u308b\u3068\u4f55\u3089\u304b\u306e\u514d\u75ab\u304c\u3067\u304d\u3066\u3001\u514d\u75ab\u7372\u5f97\u8005\u3068\u306a\u308a\u56de\u5fa9\u3059\u308b\u3002\u7e01\u8d77\u304c\u60aa\u3044\u304c\u3001\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3057\u3066\u3082\u514d\u75ab\u7372\u5f97\u8005\u306e\u67a0\u306b\u5165\u308c\u308b\u3002\u514d\u75ab\u3092\u7372\u5f97\u3059\u308b\u3068\u8ab0\u304b\u306b\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u3092\u3046\u3064\u3059\u3053\u3068\u3082\u306a\u3044\u3057\u3001\u540c\u6642\u306b\u8ab0\u304b\u304b\u3089\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u3092\u3046\u3064\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u306f\u3001\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304b\u3089\u4e00\u6c17\u306b\u514d\u75ab\u7372\u5f97\u8005\u306b\u306a\u308b\u9053\u7b4b\u304c\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3001\u3053\u308c\u304c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u306e\u63a5\u7a2e\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306e\u4e88\u9632\u63a5\u7a2e\u3060\u3002\u4e88\u9632\u63a5\u7a2e\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u3068\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u3092\u4e00\u6c17\u306b\u3059\u3063\u98db\u3070\u3057\u3066\uff08\u75ab\u5b66\u7684\u306b\u306f\u7d20\u65e9\u304f\u79fb\u52d5\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u304c\uff09\u3001\u514d\u75ab\u7372\u5f97\u8005\u306e\u67a0\u306b\u5165\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e16\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u8a00\u308f\u308c\u308b\u300c\u96c6\u56e3\u514d\u75ab\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u624b\u6cd5\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u300c\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304b\u3089\u4e00\u6c17\u306b\u514d\u75ab\u7372\u5f97\u8005\u300d\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306a\u3069\u306e\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u304c\u958b\u767a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u72b6\u614b\uff08\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306f\u6bce\u5e74\u5909\u308f\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u6bce\u5e74\u4e88\u9632\u63a5\u7a2e\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3051\u306a\u3044\uff09\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306b\u306f\u3001\u9014\u4e2d\u306e\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u304c\u304d\u308f\u3081\u3066\u4f4e\u3044\uff08\u5b9f\u306f\u4e88\u9632\u63a5\u7a2e\u3067\u3082\u30bc\u30ed\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\uff09\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u306e\u300c\u96c6\u56e3\u514d\u75ab\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u624b\u6bb5\u3092\u53d6\u308b\u3002\u9ebb\u75b9\u3068\u304b\u98a8\u75b9\u3082\u540c\u3058\u3060\u3002<br \/>\n\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u306a\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u304c\u306a\u3044\u72b6\u614b\u3067\u96c6\u56e3\u514d\u75ab\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u53d6\u308b\u3068\u3001\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u306b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u9ad8\u304f\u306a\u308b\u305f\u3081\u624b\u6bb5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u59a5\u5f53\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u56fd\u5185\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3001\u5358\u7d14\u306b\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u7531\u6765\u3060\u3051\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u306a\u81ea\u6bba\u8005\u3082\u542b\u3081\u308b\u3082\u306e\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u9451\u307f\u3066\u56fd\u3054\u3068\u306b\u65b9\u7b56\u304c\u3092\u6c7a\u3081\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u304b\u306a\u308a\u30b7\u30d3\u30a2\u306a\u8a71\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"%E9%81%B7%E7%A7%BB%E5%89%B2%E5%90%88%E3%82%92%E5%85%A5%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B\">\u9077\u79fb\u5272\u5408\u3092\u5165\u308c\u308b<\/h3>\n<p>UML\u306e\u30b9\u30c6\u30fc\u30c8\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\uff08\u72b6\u614b\u9077\u79fb\u56f3\uff09\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001100%\u6b21\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u306b\u9077\u79fb\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u75ab\u5b66\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u9077\u79fb\u3059\u308b\u300c\u5272\u5408\u300d\u304c\u5165\u3063\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3002\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u30013000\u4eba\u306e\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u306b1\u4eba\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3089\u3001\u65b0\u305f\u306b\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306b\u9077\u79fb\u3059\u308b\u4eba\u6570\u306f\u3069\u306e\u304f\u3089\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\uff1f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5177\u5408\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3092\u5b66\u8853\u7684\u306b\u306f\u300c\u6442\u52d5\u8ad6\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a00\u3046\u3002\u89e3\u6790\u5b66\u304c\u5fae\u5206\/\u7a4d\u5206\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u6570\u5f0f\u3092\u89e3\u6790\u7684\u306b\u89e3\u304f\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u6442\u52d5\u8ad6\u306f\u72b6\u614b\u306e\u5dee\u5206\u3092\u9010\u4e00\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3002\u4eca\u3067\u8a00\u3048\u3070\u3001\u30b3\u30f3\u30d4\u30e5\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u306f\u3057\u308a\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002\u6a5f\u68b0\u5b66\u7fd2\u3067\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u7573\u307f\u8fbc\u307f\u8a08\u7b97\u3082\u6442\u52d5\u8ad6\u306b\u4e00\u7a2e\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u4e00\u6c17\u306b\u89e3\u6790\u7684\u306b\u89e3\u3044\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u306e\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3001\u72b6\u614b\u30921\u624b1\u624b\uff08\u3053\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f1\u65e51\u65e5\uff09\u9032\u3081\u306a\u304c\u3089\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306a\u5024\u306b\u8fd1\u3065\u3051\u3066\u3044\u304f\u8a08\u7b97\u624b\u6cd5\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u7406\u8a08\u7b97\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u3053\u306e\u624b\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30d4\u30e5\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u529b\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u826f\u304f\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3002\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001\u300c\u9077\u79fb\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u300d\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\uff08\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\uff09\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u304c\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u5358\u7d14\u5316\u3055\u305b\u3066\u300c\u9077\u79fb\u3059\u308b\u5272\u5408\u300d\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3002<br \/>\n\u3053\u3053\u3067\u3001\u5272\u5408\u3092\u3064\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3082\u826f\u3044\u7406\u7531\u304c\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u90fd\u5e02\u9589\u9396\u3001\u81ea\u7c9b\u306a\u3069\u3067\u9014\u4e2d\u306e\u300c\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 Rt\u300d\u304c\u5909\u5316\u3059\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u306e\u767a\u751f\u306a\u3069\u3067\u3001\u9077\u79fb\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\uff08\u504f\u308a\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3001\u6761\u4ef6\u306b\u3088\u308b\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u7406\u7531\u304c\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u3082\u610f\u5473\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u5f8c\u8ff0\u3059\u308b\u304c\u30c0\u30a4\u30e4\u30e2\u30f3\u30c9\u30fb\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30bb\u30b9\u53f7\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u300c\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u306a\u72b6\u614b\u300d\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306b\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u3088\u304f\u30de\u30c3\u30c1\u3059\u308b\u3002\u9006\u306b\u8a00\u3048\u3070\u3001\u6570\u3005\u306e\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u6761\u4ef6\u304c\u5165\u3063\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306b\u306f\u3001SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u30de\u30c3\u30c1\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9077\u79fb\u3059\u308b\u5272\u5408\u306f\u5dee\u5206\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6271\u3048\u308b\u306e\u3067\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b dS\/dt \u3068\u3057\u3066\u0394\uff08\u5dee\u5206\uff09\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8868\u305b\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_02org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_02thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u3092S,E,I,R\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8868\u3057\u3066\u3001n-1\u756a\u76ee\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u304b\u3089n\u756a\u76ee\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u306b\u9077\u79fb\u3059\u308b\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u304c\u6b21\u306e\u5f0f\u306e\u610f\u5473\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002n\u756a\u76ee\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a1\u624b1\u624b\u306e\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3068\u304d\u306b\u826f\u304f\u5229\u7528\u3055\u308c\u308b\u5e30\u7d0d\u6cd5\u7684\u306a\u624b\u6cd5\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_03org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_03thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u521d\u306eS\u3068R\u306e\u5f0f\u304c\u4ed6\u3068\u7570\u306a\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001S\uff08\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff09\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u5165\u308a\uff08\u30d7\u30e9\u30b9\uff09\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3002R\uff08\u514d\u75ab\u7372\u5f97\u8005\uff09\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u51fa\uff08\u30de\u30a4\u30ca\u30b9\uff09\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001S\u306f\u5358\u8abf\u6e1b\u5c11\u3001R\u306f\u5358\u8abf\u5897\u52a0\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u9014\u4e2d\u306eE\u3068I\u306f\u3001\u5897\u52a0\u3068\u73fe\u8c61\u304c\u524d\u5f8c\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7570\u306a\u3063\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u307e\u307e\u3060\u3068\u3001dS\/dt \u81ea\u4f53\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u304c\u5c11\u3057\u3084\u308a\u3065\u3089\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001dS\/dt \u3092\u4e2d\u5fc3\u306b\u3057\u3066\u5f0f\u3092\u66f8\u304d\u76f4\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_04org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_04thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e\u5dee\u5206\uff08dS\/dt\uff09\u306b\u306f\u3001\u4f55\u3089\u304b\u306e\u5272\u5408\uff08\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\uff09\u304c\u52a0\u3048\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3092\u793a\u3059\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>S\uff08\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff09\u306b\u306f\u3001\u03b2 \u3068 N\uff08\u7dcf\u4eba\u6570\uff09\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5272\u5408<\/li>\n<li>E\uff08\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\uff09\u306b\u306f\u3001\u03b1 \u3068\u3044\u3046\u5272\u5408<\/li>\n<li>I\uff08\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\uff09\u306b\u306f\u3001\u03b3 \u3068\u3044\u3046\u5272\u5408<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3092\u639b\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3002N \u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u7dcf\u4eba\u6570(S+E+I+R)\u3067\u5168\u3066\u8db3\u3057\u305f\u6570\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u03b2 : \u611f\u67d3\u7387<\/li>\n<li>\u03b1 : \u6f5c\u4f0f\u7387<\/li>\n<li>\u03b3 : \u56de\u5fa9\u7387<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u547c\u3073\u65b9\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u4e01\u5ea6\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_Model\">Compartmental models in epidemiology &#8211; Wikipedia<\/a> \u306e SEIR model \u306e\u5f0f\u3068\u540c\u3058\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u82f1\u8a9e\u7248\u306e SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u3067\u3042\u308b \u03bc \u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u6271\u3046 SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u77ed\u671f\u9593\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u03bc = 0 \u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6f5c\u4f0f\u7387\uff08\u03b1\uff09\u3084\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\uff08\u03b3\uff09\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u3092\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u75ab\u5b66\u306e\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\uff08lp\uff09\u3068\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\uff08ip\uff09\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u8868\u305b\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_05org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_05thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3001\u8ab0\u304b\u3089\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u3092\u8cb0\u3063\u3066\u767a\u75c5\uff08\u75c7\u72b6\u304c\u51fa\u308b\uff09\u307e\u3067\u306e\u671f\u9593\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306b\u306f\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u3092\u5916\u306b\u51fa\u3055\u306a\u3044\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a\u8ab0\u306b\u3082\u3046\u3064\u3055\u306a\u3044\u72b6\u614b\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u3067\u8a00\u3048\u3070\u30012,3\u65e5\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3001\u75c7\u72b6\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u304b\u3089\u56de\u5fa9\u3057\u3066\u514d\u75ab\u3092\u7372\u5f97\u3059\u308b\u307e\u3067\u306e\u671f\u9593\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u7684\u306b\u306f\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3082\u3053\u3053\u306b\u542b\u307e\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3067\u75c7\u72b6\u304c\u91cd\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306b\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u306f\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u306f\u77ed\u304f\u63db\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u3067\u8a00\u3048\u30701\u9031\u9593\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u5c0f\u5b66\u751f\u304c\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306b\u7f79\u3063\u3066\u5b66\u6821\u306b\u5fa9\u5e30\u3067\u304d\u308b\u307e\u3067\u306e\u671f\u9593\u304c1\u9031\u9593\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3042\u305f\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3055\u3066\u3001\u809d\u5fc3\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u7387\uff08\u03b2\uff09\u306f\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3088\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\u3002<br \/>\n\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u3067\u4e00\u6c17\u306b\u6709\u540d\u306a\u3063\u305f\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0\u300d\u3084\u300c\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 Rt\u300d\u304c\u3053\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u306b\u95a2\u4fc2\u3057\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u300c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3001\u75ab\u5b66\u3060\u3051\u306e\u7528\u8a9e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3066\u300c\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306e\u500b\u4f53\u304c\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u306e\u5225\u306e\u500b\u4f53\u3092\u3046\u307f\u3060\u3059\u304b\u300d\u306e\u5272\u5408\uff08\u6570\uff09\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u3001\u5973\u6027\u304c\u4e00\u751f\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u5b50\u3069\u3082\u3092\u751f\u3080\u3068\u3044\u3046\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u306f\u30012.3\u7a0b\u5ea6\u304c\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u308b\u30022.0\u3088\u308a\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u591a\u3044\u306e\u306f\u3001\u9014\u4e2d\u3067\u75c5\u6c17\u3084\u4e8b\u6545\u306a\u3069\u3067\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3060\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u5c11\u5b50\u5316\u306b\u3088\u308a1.6\u4f4d\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3050\u3093\u3050\u3093\u4eba\u53e3\u304c\u6e1b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u79c1\u81ea\u8eab\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3051\u3069\u3001\u7089\u7269\u7406\u306e\u5206\u91ce\u3067\u3082\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3067\u300c\u65ad\u9762\u7a4d \u03c3\u300d\u304c\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3002\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306e\u4e2d\u6027\u5b50\u304c U235 \u306b\u5f53\u305f\u3063\u3066\u3001\u3044\u304f\u3064\u306e\u4e2d\u6027\u5b50\u3092\u751f\u307f\u51fa\u3059\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a08\u7b97\u306b\u65ad\u9762\u7a4d\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3002\u3053\u306e\u65ad\u9762\u7a4d\u306f\u3001\u6838\u7a2e\u56fa\u6709\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u71c3\u6599\u68d2\u3084\u5236\u5fa1\u68d2\u306a\u3069\u3092\u542b\u3081\u305f\u5024\u3067\u3082\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6700\u8fd1\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30d4\u30e5\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u306f\u3001\u71c3\u6599\u68d2\u3001\u5236\u5fa1\u68d2\u3001\u4e00\u6b21\u51b7\u5374\u6c34\u3092\u5225\u3005\u306e\u65ad\u9762\u7a4d\u3067\u6271\u3044\u3001\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u81e8\u754c\u3092\u4fdd\u3064\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u3053\u3053\u306f\u4f59\u8ac7\u3060\u304c\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u300d\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u306f\u74b0\u5883\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3001\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u56fa\u6709\u306e\u5024<\/li>\n<li>\u300c\u5b9f\u52b9\u300d\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u306f\u74b0\u5883\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3059\u308b\u5272\u5408<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u9055\u3044\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u300d\uff08basic\uff09\u3068\u300c\u5b9f\u52b9\u300d\uff08effective\uff09\u306e\u9055\u3044\u306f\u4ed6\u306e\u5206\u91ce\u3067\u3082\u51fa\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u3055\u3066\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u307f\u3088\u3046\u3002\u5148\u306e\u82f1\u8a9e\u306e SEIR model \u306e\u4e2d\u306b\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5f0f\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_06org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_06thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u306f\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u7387\u3001\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\u3001\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\uff08\u03bc\uff09\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u8a08\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308b\u3002\u3053\u3053\u3067\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u7387\uff08\u03b1\uff09\u3068\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\uff08\u03b3\uff09\u306f\u65e2\u77e5\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\uff08\u03bc\uff09\u306f 0 \u3068\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5f0f\u304c\u66f8\u304d\u66ff\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_07org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_07thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u306f\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u751f\u7523\u6570\u306b\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\u3092\u639b\u3051\u305f\u3082\u306e\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\uff08\u03b3\uff09\u306f\u3001\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\uff08ip\uff09\u306e\u9006\u6570\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u5f62\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_08org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_08thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3067\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u306e\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3092\u601d\u3044\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u307f\u3088\u3046\u3002\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306e\u500b\u4f53\u304c\u305d\u306e\u751f\u5b58\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306b\u4ed6\u306e\u500b\u4f53\u3092\u51fa\u3059\u5272\u5408\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u75ab\u5b66\u306e\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u306b\u306f\u3001\u3072\u3068\u308a\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304c\u4ed6\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff08\u4e8c\u6b21\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff09\u3092\u751f\u307f\u51fa\u3059\u6570\u3001\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u304c\u751f\u304d\u3066\u3044\u308b\u9593\uff08\u56de\u5fa9\u671f\u9593\u306b\u5165\u308b\u524d\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593I\uff09\u306b\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u3092\u4f5c\u308b\u304b\uff1f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6570\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u3055\u304d\u306b\u66f8\u3044\u305f\u3001\u5c11\u5b50\u5316\u306e\u554f\u984c\u306b\u306a\u308c\u3070\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u306f\u30a4\u30b3\u30fc\u30eb\u5973\u6027\u306e\u4e00\u751f\u306e\u9593\u3068\u3044\u3046\u671f\u9593\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>R0 \u306f\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b R0 \u3092\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\uff08ip\uff09\u3067\u5272\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u304c\u611f\u67d3\u7387\uff08\u03b2\uff09\u306e\u610f\u5473\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u5358\u4f4d\u3042\u305f\u308a\uff08\u3053\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\uff11\u65e5\u3042\u305f\u308a\uff09\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u3092\u5897\u3084\u3059\u5272\u5408\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u3053\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3001\u5358\u4f4d\u65e5\u3042\u305f\u308a\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u3068\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u3092\u5225\u306b\u6271\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u306f\u4e0d\u601d\u8b70\u306a\u611f\u3058\u304c\u3059\u308b\u304c\u3001\u3068\u3082\u304b\u304f\u540c\u3058\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u591a\u5206\u3001\u300c\u500d\u52a0\u671f\u9593\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u6838\u7a2e\u306e\u534a\u6e1b\u671f\uff08\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\uff09\u306b\u3042\u308f\u305b\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u5de5\u592b\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"%E4%BD%95%E6%95%85%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E9%96%A2%E6%95%B0%E3%81%AB%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E3%81%AE%E3%81%8B\">\u4f55\u6545\u3001\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u304b<\/h3>\n<p>SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306a\u3069\u5b9f\u6e2c\u306e\u7d4c\u7def\u3092\u793a\u3059\u305f\u3081\u306b\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\uff08\u7247\u5bfe\u6570\u8868\uff09\u304c\u826f\u304f\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3002\u6025\u6fc0\u306b\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u304c\u4e0a\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u305f\u3081\u306b\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u898b\u3048\u308b\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u306f\u3053\u306e SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u81ea\u4f53\u304c\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u7684\u306b\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u304c\u305d\u3046\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u73fe\u5b9f\u3068\u304c\u9006\u8ee2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u307f\u3048\u308b\u304c\u3001\u300c\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u8981\u7d20\u3092\u629c\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u95a2\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u304c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u4e00\u90e8\u3092\u3046\u307e\u304f\u8868\u305b\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u9006\u306b\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u5408\u308f\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u6368\u3066\u306a\u304f\u3066\u306f\u3044\u3051\u306a\u3044\u3002\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u9069\u7528\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u30e9\u30f3\u30b2\u30fc\u30b8\u306a\u3069\u6d3b\u7528\u3057\u3066\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30e0\u3092\u7d44\u3080\u3068\u304d\u306b\u4f3c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u696d\u52d9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f5c\u3063\u3066\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u305f\u308a\u3001\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3092\u3046\u307e\u304f\u4f7f\u3048\u308b\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30e0\u8a00\u8a9e\u3092\u6d3b\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u306f\u52b9\u7387\u3088\u304f\u4f5c\u308c\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u3092\u3046\u307e\u304f\u696d\u52d9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u843d\u3068\u3057\u8fbc\u3081\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u308a\u3001\u696d\u52d9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u78ba\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u5f8c\u306b\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u307b\u3046\u304c\u5909\u308f\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3063\u305f\uff08\u696d\u52d9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u81ea\u8eab\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u6539\u5584\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5834\u5408\u3082\u542b\u3080\uff09\u5834\u5408\u3067\u3082\u3001\u696d\u52d9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304b\u3089\u4e56\u96e2\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u3002<br \/>\n\u3053\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u696d\u52d9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u65b0\u3057\u304f\u4f5c\u308a\u76f4\u3059\u306e\u306f\u5e38\u3060\u3002<br \/>\n\u540c\u3058\u73fe\u8c61\u306f\u3001SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3082\u8a00\u3048\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\u81ea\u7136\u5bfe\u6570 e \u306e\u4e57\u6570\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u3082\u306e\u304c\u591a\u3044\u304c\uff08\u3053\u308c\u306f\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u306b\u7406\u7531\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002e \u3067\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3068\u5fae\u5206\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001e \u306b\u623b\u308b\u306e\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u304c\u697d\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002\u30ac\u30a6\u30b9\u5206\u5e03\u304c\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3042\u305f\u308b\uff09\u3001\u306a\u306b\u3082\u75ab\u75c5\u306e\u73fe\u5b9f\u304c\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u306b\u30de\u30c3\u30c1\u3057\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u306b\u306a\u308b SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3001\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u7684\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002<br \/>\n\u3053\u306e\u56e0\u679c\u95a2\u4fc2\u304c\u3088\u304f\u308f\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3001\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u306b\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30c6\u30a4\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6570\u3092\u30de\u30c3\u30c1\u3055\u305b\u3066\u307f\u305f\u308a\u3001S\u5b57\u30ab\u30fc\u30d6\u306b\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30c6\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8b0e\u7406\u8ad6\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3002\u3044\u3084\u3001\u8b0e\u7406\u8ad6\u306f\u5225\u306b\u3044\u3044\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u5373\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u300c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u300d\u3068\u306f\u8a00\u3048\u306a\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p>SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u3066\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u306b\u5165\u308b\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u3057\u3066\u304b\u3089\u767a\u75c7\u3059\u308b\u3001\u767a\u75c7\u3057\u3066\u304b\u3089\u514d\u75ab\u3092\u7372\u5f97\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u3082\u540c\u3058\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306b\u8ab0\u304b\u306b\u79fb\u3059\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5831\u544a\u3082\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u304c\u5c11\u3057\u305a\u308c\u308b\u304c\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f\u300c\u8ab0\u304b\u306b\u79fb\u3059\u671f\u9593\u3092\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u3068\u3059\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3046\u5b9a\u7fa9\u306b\u5408\u308f\u305b\u3066\u30012\u65e5\u9593\u307b\u3069\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u306b\u52a0\u3048\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3048\u3070\u3088\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3042\u3089\u305f\u3081\u3066\u3001\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005 S \u306e\u5dee\u5206\u306e\u5f0f\u3092\u307f\u3066\u3044\u3053\u3046\u3002\u611f\u67d3\u7387\uff08\u03b2\uff09\u304c\u3001\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff08S\uff09\u306b\u639b\u3051\u5408\u308f\u3055\u3063\u3066\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308b\u3002\u7dcf\u6570\uff08N\uff09\u3067\u5272\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u304c\u5358\u4f4d\u306e\u306a\u3044\u5272\u5408\u3068\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_04org-1.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_04thum-1.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff08S\uff09\u304b\u3089\u4e00\u5b9a\u306e\u5272\u5408\u3067\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u3066\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\uff08E\uff09\u306e\u79fb\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u304b\u3089\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306b\u6ede\u7559\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u540c\u3058\u7406\u7531\u3067\u3001\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u306b\u3082\u6ede\u7559\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e\u300c\u6ede\u7559\u300d\u6570\u304c\u3001\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u306e\u7d2f\u8a08\u304c\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u7684\u306b\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3042\u3044\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u89e3\u6790\u7684\u306b\u89e3\u3044\u3066\u3082\u3044\u3044\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\uff08\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 Rt\uff09\u304c\u65e5\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7570\u306a\u3063\u3066\u304f\u308b\u306e\u3067\u89e3\u6790\u7684\u306b\u89e3\u304f\u306e\u306f\u59a5\u5f53\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u65e5\u5358\u4f4d\u3067\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u89e3\u6790\u3092\u3057\u305f\u307b\u3046\u304c\u3088\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3092\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3057\u305f\u306e\u304c\u3001\u4e0b\u306e\u56f3\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_12org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_12thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u30aa\u30ec\u30f3\u30b8\u8272\u306e\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u6570\u304c\u3001\u6025\u6fc0\u306b\u4e0a\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff08\u7dda\u5f62\u7684\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\uff09\u3067\u306f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u7279\u306b\u7acb\u3061\u4e0a\u304c\u308a\u306e\u3068\u3053\u308d\u306f\u3001\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u7684\u306b\u3042\u304c\u308b\u3002\u5b9f\u969b\u306f e \u306b\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30c8\u3059\u308b\u8a33\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304c\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u7684\u306b\u7206\u767a\u7684\u306b\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\uff08\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u30aa\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u30b7\u30e5\u30fc\u30c8\uff09\u3068\u8a00\u308f\u308c\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3053\u306e\u73fe\u8c61\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"seir%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%82%92-javascript-%E3%81%A7%E3%82%B7%E3%83%9F%E3%83%A5%E3%83%AC%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B\">SEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092 JavaScript \u3067\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u3059\u308b<\/h2>\n<p>\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u7684\u306b\u89e3\u6790\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001R \u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u308a Python \u3067\u65e2\u5b58\u306e\u30e9\u30a4\u30d6\u30e9\u30ea\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c\u591a\u3044\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u306f Javascript \u3067\u3082\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u4f5c\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u306b\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u3092\u8272\u3005\u5909\u3048\u3066\u307f\u305f\u308a\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u3084\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u3092\u5909\u3048\u3066\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30c8\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092\u30c1\u30a7\u30c3\u30af\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001\u8a66\u884c\u932f\u8aa4\u304c\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u3067\u304d\u308b Javascript \u304c\u3088\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002Python \u3067 GUI \u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u4f5c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001Vue.js \u3092\u4f7f\u3044 c3.js \u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u4f5c\u308c\u3070\u3001JS \u3067\u3082\u5341\u5206\u4f7f\u3048\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<pre class=\"hljs\"><code>        seir_eq: <span class=\"hljs-function\"><span class=\"hljs-keyword\">function<\/span>(<span class=\"hljs-params\">v,t,alpha,beta,gamma,N<\/span>) <\/span>{\n            S = v[<span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span>]\n            E = v[<span class=\"hljs-number\">1<\/span>]\n            I = v[<span class=\"hljs-number\">2<\/span>]\n            R = v[<span class=\"hljs-number\">3<\/span>]\n            ds = - beta * I \/ N * S             <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ dS\/dt = -\u03b2I\/N*S<\/span>\n            de = beta * I \/ N * S - alpha * E   <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ dE\/dt = \u03b2I\/N*S-\u03b1E<\/span>\n            di = alpha * E - gamma * I          <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ dI\/dt = \u03b1E - \u03b3I<\/span>\n            dr = gamma * I                      <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ dR\/dt = \u03b3I <\/span>\n\n            <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">return<\/span> [ds,de,di,dr];\n        },\n<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u809d\u306f\u3001\u5148\u306e\u5dee\u5206\u306e\u5f0f\u3092 JS \u306b\u76f4\u3059\u3060\u3051\u3060\u3002<br \/>\n\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3001seir_eq \u3068\u3044\u3046\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u5dee\u5206\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002S,E,I,R \u304c\u914d\u5217\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u53c2\u8003\u306b\u3057\u305f python \u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30e0\u306e\u540d\u6b8b\u308a\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3092\u65e5\u5358\u4f4d\u3067\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u5b9f\u884c\u3055\u308b\u3068\u5148\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\u306f\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/moonmile.github.io\/seir-model\/\">SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb \u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30bf<\/a> \u3067\u5b9f\u884c\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306f\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/moonmile\/seir-model\">moonmile\/seir-model: SEIR model simulator<\/a> \u3067\u516c\u958b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u8a73\u3057\u304f\u306f index.html \u306e\u4e2d\u5473\u3092\u898b\u3066\u6b32\u3057\u3044\u3002\u305d\u308c\u307b\u3069\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3084\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306a SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306a\u3089\u3070\u3001\u305d\u308c\u307b\u3069\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"%E8%80%83%E5%AF%9F\">\u8003\u5bdf<\/h2>\n<p>\u8a66\u3057\u306b\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u6570\u5024\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u3066\u307b\u3057\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff08S\uff09\u304c3,000\u4eba<\/li>\n<li>\u521d\u671f\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304c5\u4eba<\/li>\n<li>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 = 10.0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_13org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_13thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u304c 10.0 \u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u300c\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u306a\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u300d\u306e\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n1\u304b\u6708\u5f8c\u306b\u306f\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u304c1,500\u4eba\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u6570\u5024\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u30c0\u30a4\u30e4\u30e2\u30f3\u30c9\u30fb\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30bb\u30b9\u53f7\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u306b\u3046\u307e\u304f\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30c8\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u9589\u9396\u7a7a\u9593\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u9ad8\u3044\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u308b\u3002\u9006\u306b\u8a00\u3048\u3070\u3001\u9589\u9396\u7a7a\u9593\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306e Rt \u306f\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u3002\u611f\u67d3\u3055\u305b\u306a\u3044\u4eba\u304c8\u5272\u3050\u3089\u3044\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6839\u62e0\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6771\u4eac\u90fd\u306e\u90fd\u5e02\u9589\u9396\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3082\u3001\u5834\u6240\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u306f\u540c\u3058\u73fe\u8c61\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002\u4e00\u6982\u306b\u9589\u9396\u304c\u3088\u3044\u8a33\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306e\u306f\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u306a\u7406\u7531\u3082\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u4eba\u306e\u884c\u304d\u6765\u3092\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u305f\u3081\u306b\u5834\u6240\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u306f\u300c\u611f\u67d3\u306b\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u306a\u7a7a\u9593\u300d\u304c\u751f\u307e\u308c\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7406\u7531\u3067\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u307e\u305f\u3001\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u3067\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u6050\u308c\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff08\u307e\u3060\u4e8b\u5b9f\u3068\u306f\u8a00\u3048\u306a\u3044\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u7121\u75c7\u72b6\u306e\u4fdd\u83cc\u8005\u304c\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7121\u75c7\u72b6\u306e\u4fdd\u83cc\u8005\u304c\u611f\u67d3\u3055\u305b\u3066\u3044\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u9ad8\u3044<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u306f\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u306e\u6297\u4f53\u691c\u67fb\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3067\u306e\u6297\u4f53\u691c\u67fb\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u660e\u3089\u304b\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3053\u3068\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"%E6%96%B0%E8%A6%8F%E6%82%A3%E8%80%85%E6%95%B0%E3%81%AE%E9%81%85%E5%BB%B6%E3%81%AB%E3%81%A4%E3%81%84%E3%81%A6\">\u65b0\u898f\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u306e\u9045\u5ef6\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066<\/h3>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306f\u3001\u96a0\u308c\u60a3\u8005\u3092\u60f3\u5b9a\u3057\u305f SIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u79c1\u7684\u306b\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u5b66\u8853\u7684\u306a\u6b63\u3057\u3055\u306f\u8107\u306b\u7f6e\u3044\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_15org.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/images20200429_15thum.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u304c\u9577\u3044\u4e14\u3064\u7121\u75c7\u72b6\u60a3\u8005\u304c\u591a\u3044\u3068\u611f\u304c\u3089\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3067\u300c\u96a0\u308c\u60a3\u8005\u300d\u3092\u8a66\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u65b0\u898f\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u30922\u9031\u9593\u524d\u306b\u9061\u3063\u3066\u3001\u96a0\u308c\u65b0\u898f\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u3068\u3059\u308b<\/li>\n<li>2\u9031\u9593\u524d\u306e\u96a0\u308c\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u306e\u7d2f\u8a08\u3092\u51fa\u3057\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u306e\u65b0\u898f\u60a3\u8005\u3092\u56de\u5fa9\u8005\u3068\u3057\u3066\u53d6\u308a\u9664\u304f<\/li>\n<li>\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u3092\u63a8\u6e2c\u3057\u3001\u73fe\u6642\u70b9\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u30012\u9031\u9593\u5f8c\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u53d6\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u306f Excel \u3067\u96c6\u8a08\u3057\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3067\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/1drv.ms\/x\/s!AmXmBbuizQkXgqZdQai8We1yeCBqgQ?e=YSkcrK\">\u96a0\u308cSIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\uff08\u6771\u4eac\u7248\uff09<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4ed6\u306b\u3082\u65b0\u898f\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u69d8\u3005\u306a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u70b9\u3092\u6307\u6458\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304d\u305f\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u73fe\u5b9f\u3092\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30c6\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u3055\u305b\u3066\u306f\u3044\u3051\u306a\u3044\uff08\u7279\u306bS\u30ab\u30fc\u30d6\uff09\u3002\u5e38\u306b\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u307b\u3046\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5168\u56fd\u4e00\u5f8b\u3067\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3044\u3051\u306a\u3044\u3002\u300c\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u767a\u751f\u300d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u901a\u308a\u3001\u6f20\u7136\u3068\u767a\u751f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u5404\u5730\u306b\u504f\u5728\u3059\u308b\u3001\u5206\u6563\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u6700\u4f4e\u9650\u3001\u9589\u9396\u3059\u308b\u90fd\u5e02\u5358\u4f4d\uff08\u6771\u4eac\u90fd\u3001\u5927\u962a\u5e9c\u3001\u672d\u5e4c\u5e02\u306a\u3069\uff09\u3067\u50be\u5411\u3092\u307f\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5b8c\u5168\u306a\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u3057\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u3068\u3053\u308d\u306f\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3060\u3002IT \u5c4b\u306a\u3089\u5206\u304b\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3051\u3069\u3001\u30a6\u30a9\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30eb\u65b9\u5f0f\u3067\u30d7\u30ed\u30b8\u30a7\u30af\u30c8\u304c\u76f2\u76ee\u7684\u306b\u9032\u3093\u3067\u3057\u307e\u3048\u3070\u3001\u305d\u3053\u306b\u5f85\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u306f\u30c7\u30b9\u30de\u30fc\u30c1\u3057\u304b\u306a\u3044\u3002\u5076\u7136\u306b\u3082\u30d7\u30ed\u30b8\u30a7\u30af\u30c8\u304c\u6210\u529f\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306f\u73fe\u5b9f\u304c\u5909\u308f\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u524d\u63d0\u3067\u7dbf\u5bc6\u306a\u8a08\u753b\u3092\u7acb\u3066\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306b\u9650\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u306a\u3089\u3070\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6642\u3005\u306b\u30cf\u30f3\u30c9\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3092\u3059\u308b\u30a2\u30b8\u30e3\u30a4\u30eb\u65b9\u5f0f\u3067\u53d6\u3089\u306d\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002\u5c02\u9580\u8005\u4f1a\u8b70\u306e\u610f\u898b\u304c\u9031\u5358\u4f4d\u3067\u5909\u308f\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u306e\u3082\u4ed5\u65b9\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u30b9\u30ed\u30fc\u30ac\u30f3\u306f\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u60aa\u624b\u306b\u9665\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002\u624b\u9593\u6687\u306f\u304b\u304b\u308b\u304c\u3001\u72b6\u6cc1\u3092\u898b\u636e\u3048\u3066\u305d\u306e\u5834\u305d\u306e\u5834\u3067\u72b6\u6cc1\u306b\u5408\u308f\u305b\u3066\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u8a08\u753b\u3092\u7acb\u3066\u3001\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u898b\u76f4\u3059\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30eb\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6642\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u5b89\u5fc3\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306f\u7121\u99c4\u3060\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u6697\u4e2d\u6a21\u7d22\u3068\u3044\u3046\u308f\u3051\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u7d39\u4ecb\u3059\u308b SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u3042\u308b\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u5148\u884c\u304d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u300c\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u300d\u306b\u3088\u308a\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u30ba\u30ec\u3066\u3044\u308c\u3070\u3001\u6e05\u304f\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5909\u3048\u3066\u518d\u3073\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3088\u3044\u3002\u96a0\u308cSIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3001\u72ec\u81ea\u306b\u65e5\u3005\u66f4\u65b0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u306f\u305d\u308c\u306e\u610f\u5473\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3068\u8a00\u3046\u308f\u3051\u3067\u3001\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30de\u306a\u3089\u3070\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u624b\u3092\u52d5\u304b\u3057\u3066 JS \u3067\u7d44\u3093\u3067\u307f\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002Python \u3067\u3082\u7d44\u3081\u308b\u3057\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306a\u3089\u3070 C# \u3067\u3082\u3044\u3051\u308b\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002Excel VBA \u3067\u3082\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002\u662f\u975e\u305f\u3081\u3057\u3066\u307f\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83%E6%96%87%E7%8C%AE\">\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ism.ac.jp\/editsec\/toukei\/pdf\/54-2-461.pdf\">\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u6d41\u884c\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u8ab2\u984c<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_Model\">Compartmental models in epidemiology &#8211; Wikipedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bs.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp\/content\/files\/SEIR%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%81%AB%E3%82%88%E3%82%8BCOVID-19%E6%B5%81%E8%A1%8C%E4%BA%88%E6%B8%AC%20200331ver3.1.pdf\">\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u306e\u6d41\u884c\u4e88\u6e2c<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6700\u521d\u306b\u300cSEIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300d\u3092\u77e5\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f2\u6708\u672b\u306e\u9803\u3067\u3059\u3002\u307e\u3060\u30c0\u30a4\u30e4\u30e2\u30f3\u30c9\u30fb\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30bb\u30b9\u53f7\u3067\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u304c\u6d41\u884c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u9803\u3067\u6771\u4eac\u90fd\u306b\u3082\u4ed6\u306e\u90fd\u5e02\u3082\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u3082\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u3082\u305d\u308c\u307b\u3069\u554f\u984c\u306b\u306f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u306e\u6b66\u6f22\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u304b\u3089 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/archives\/10433\">\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080 <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dev"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10433"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10433\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10439,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10433\/revisions\/10439"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}