{"id":10384,"date":"2020-03-24T01:14:41","date_gmt":"2020-03-23T16:14:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/?p=10384"},"modified":"2020-03-24T01:17:06","modified_gmt":"2020-03-23T16:17:06","slug":"%e6%84%9f%e6%9f%93%e7%97%87%e6%95%b0%e7%90%86%e3%83%a2%e3%83%87%e3%83%ab%e3%81%a7%e3%82%b7%e3%83%9f%e3%83%a5%e3%83%ac%e3%83%bc%e3%82%b7%e3%83%a7%e3%83%b3%e3%81%99%e3%82%8b%ef%bc%88%e3%81%9d%e3%81%ae-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/archives\/10384","title":{"rendered":"\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3059\u308b\uff08\u305d\u306e\uff12\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>3\u9031\u9593\u307b\u3069\u7d4c\u3061\u72b6\u6cc1\u304c\u5909\u308f\u3063\u3066\u304d\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8a71\u3092\u5f15\u304d\u7d9a\u304d<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"seir-%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%82%92-js-%E3%81%A7%E6%9B%B8%E3%81%8F\">SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092 JS \u3067\u66f8\u304f<\/h2>\n<p>\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u59d4\u54e1\u4f1a\u304b\u3089\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0\u300d\u3084\u300c\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a00\u8449\u3067\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4ed6\u306b\u3082\u5c02\u9580\u7528\u8a9e\u304c\u3067\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u3092\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306b\u89e3\u8aac\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u306e\u524d\u306b\u300c\u305d\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u5206\u91ce\u3067\u306f\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u4f7f\u3044\u65b9\u3092\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff1f\u300d\u3092\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u628a\u63e1\u3059\u308b\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u307e\u3042\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u300c\u5c02\u9580\u5206\u91ce\u300d\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304b\u3089\u3001\u540c\u3058\u8a00\u8449\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3082\u5c02\u9580\u5206\u91ce\u3054\u3068\u306b\u591a\u5c11\u306e\u9055\u3044\u306f\u3042\u308b\u3057\u3001\u9006\u306b\u540c\u3058\u7528\u8a9e\u3092\u4ed6\u306e\u5206\u91ce\u3067\u3082\u540c\u3058\u69d8\u306b\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3082\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3069\u3061\u3089\u306b\u305b\u3088\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5206\u91ce\u3067\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u7528\u8a9e\u306e\u628a\u63e1\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u3093\u306a\u8a33\u3067\u3001\uff12\u9031\u9593\u307b\u3069\u524d\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092 Javascript \u3067\u66f8\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u5143\u306e Python \u304b\u3089\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e JS \u306b\u66f8\u304d\u66ff\u3048\u3066\u3001\u305d\u306e\u3042\u3068 R0 \u3092\u53d6\u308a\u8fbc\u3081\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u3001R0 \u306e\u610f\u5473\u304c\u5206\u304b\u3089\u306a\u304f\u3066\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\u9593\u9055\u3048\u3066\u3044\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5148\u65e5\u76f4\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u3053\u306b\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u89e3\u8aac\u3092\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"seir-%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%81%AE%E6%95%B0%E5%BC%8F\">SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6570\u5f0f<\/h2>\n<p>\u5b9f\u306f\u3001Wikipedia \u3092\u898b\u308b\u3068\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3068\u82f1\u8a9e\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3068 SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5f0f\u304c\u82e5\u5e72\u9055\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u03b2 \u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3067\u7dcf\u6570 N \u304c\u51fa\u3066\u304f\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u03b2(N) \u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u7dcf\u6570\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u82f1\u8a9e\u7248\u306e\u307b\u3046\u306f \u03b2 \u306f N \u304b\u3089\u72ec\u7acb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u304c\u7dcf\u6570 N \u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u5909\u306a\u611f\u3058\u304c\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u82f1\u8a9e\u7248\u306e\u307b\u3046\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_model\">The SEIR model<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u51fa\u751f\u7387 \u039b \u3068\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387 \u03bc \u306f\u77ed\u671f\u9593\u306a\u306e\u3067\u30010 \u3068\u307f\u306a\u305b\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3092\u66f8\u304d\u65b9\u3048\u305f\u306e\u304c\u4e0b\u306e\u5f0f\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200323_01org.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200323_01thum.jpg' \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>N: \u5168\u4f53\u306e\u7dcf\u6570<\/li>\n<li>S: \u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005<\/li>\n<li>E: \u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d<\/li>\n<li>I: \u767a\u75c7\u8005<\/li>\n<li>R: \u56de\u5fa9\u8005\/\u514d\u75ab\u3092\u5f97\u305f\u4eba<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u3067\u767a\u8868\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5168\u56fd\u6c11\u304c\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u3066\u514d\u75ab\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u65b9\u5f0f\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u3001R \u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u3066\u6f5c\u4f0f\u2192\u767a\u75c7\u2192\u56de\u5fa9\u3068\u3044\u3046\u9806\u756a\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u304b\u306a\u3089\u305a\u56de\u5fa9\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u767a\u75c7\u5f8c\u306b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3059\u308b\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306b\u306f\u3001\u81f4\u6b7b\u7387\u304c2\uff05\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3060\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u76f8\u5f53\u306e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u8005\u304c\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u52b9\u64a4\u56de\u3055\u308c\u305f\u306e\u306f\u3001\u826f\u3044\u5224\u65ad\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u5f0f\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e3\u3064\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u03b1: \u6f5c\u4f0f\u7387<\/li>\n<li>\u03b2: \u611f\u67d3\u7387<\/li>\n<li>\u03b3: \u56de\u5fa9\u7387<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306f\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593 lp \u3068\u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593 ip \u3067\u66f8\u304d\u66ff\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u03b1 = 1\/lp : \u6f5c\u4f0f\u5e30\u9084\u306e\u9006\u6570<\/li>\n<li>\u03b3 = 1\/ip : \u767a\u75c7\u671f\u9593\u306e\u9006\u6570<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u809d\u5fc3\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u03b2 \u306e\u5024\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u3068\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u304c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200323_02org.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200323_02thum.jpg' \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387 \u03bc \u304c 0 \u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001R0 \u306f \u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u03b2 \u3068 \u56de\u5fa9\u7387 \u03b3 \u3068\u306e\u6bd4\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u5f0f\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u03b2 \u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u66f8\u304d\u66ff\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_01org.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_01thum.jpg' \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u5f0f\u304b\u3089\u5206\u304b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u03b2 \u3068\u56de\u5fa9\u7387 \u03b3 \u304c\u7b49\u3057\u3044\u3068\u304d\u306b R0 \u304c 1.0 \u306b\u306a\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u03b2 \u304c\u56de\u5fa9\u7387 \u03b3 \u304c\u5927\u304d\u3044\u3068\u304d\u306b R0 \u306f 1 \u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u304c\u62e1\u5927\u3059\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u03b2 \u304c\u56de\u5fa9\u7387 \u03b3 \u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u3068\u304d\u306b R0 \u306f 1 \u3088\u308a\u5c0f\u3055\u304f\u306a\u308a\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u306f\u7e2e\u5c0f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u73fe\u8c61\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u304c\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u4f1a\u8b70\u306e\u8a00\u3046\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0\u300d\u306e\u610f\u5473\u3067\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3060\u3051 R0 &lt; 1.0 \u306e\u72b6\u614b\u3092\u4fdd\u3061\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3092\u4f4e\u304f\u6291\u3048\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5bfe\u7b56\u306e\u6839\u62e0\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"seir-%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%82%92-js-%E3%81%AB%E7%9B%B4%E3%81%99\">SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092 JS \u306b\u76f4\u3059<\/h2>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u6570\u5f0f\u3092 Javascript \u306b\u76f4\u3059\u3068\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\nv \u306e\u3068\u3053\u308d\u304c\u914d\u5217\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u306f Python \u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u540d\u6b8b\u308a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<pre class=\"hljs\"><code><span class=\"hljs-function\"><span class=\"hljs-keyword\">function<\/span> <span class=\"hljs-title\">seir_eq<\/span>(<span class=\"hljs-params\">v,t,alpha,beta,gamma,N<\/span>) <\/span>{\n\n    S = v[<span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span>]\n    E = v[<span class=\"hljs-number\">1<\/span>]\n    I = v[<span class=\"hljs-number\">2<\/span>]\n    R = v[<span class=\"hljs-number\">3<\/span>]\n    ds = - beta * I \/ N * S             <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ dS\/dt = -\u03b2I\/N*S<\/span>\n    de = beta * I \/ N * S - alpha * E   <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ dE\/dt = \u03b2I\/N*S-\u03b1E<\/span>\n    di = alpha * E - gamma * I          <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ dI\/dt = \u03b1E - \u03b3I<\/span>\n    dr = gamma * I                      <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ dR\/dt = \u03b3I <\/span>\n\n    <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">return<\/span> [ds,de,di,dr];\n}\n<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3092100\u65e5\u9593\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u3059\u306e\u304c\u6b21\u306e calc \u95a2\u6570\u3067\u3059\u3002<br \/>\nSEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3001\u8a66\u3057\u306b\u9694\u96e2\u7387(T) \u3092\u57cb\u3081\u8fbc\u3093\u3067\u307f\u3066\u3001\u767a\u75c7\u8005\u306e\u4e00\u5b9a\u5272\u5408\u3092\u75c5\u9662\u306b\u9694\u96e2\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3082\u5165\u308c\u3066\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u3042\u3068\u3001S,E,I,R \u306e\u6570\u306f\u30de\u30a4\u30ca\u30b9\u5024\u306b\u306f\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u3057\u8a08\u7b97\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3068\u304d\u306b\u88dc\u6b63\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<pre class=\"hljs\"><code><span class=\"hljs-function\"><span class=\"hljs-keyword\">function<\/span> <span class=\"hljs-title\">calc<\/span>(<span class=\"hljs-params\">state,alpha,beta,gamma<\/span>) <\/span>{\n    <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">var<\/span> t_max = <span class=\"hljs-number\">100<\/span> ;\n    <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">var<\/span> dt = <span class=\"hljs-number\">1<\/span> ;\n    lst = []\n    <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">var<\/span> N = Sinit + Einit + Iinit + Rinit\n    <span class=\"hljs-built_in\">console<\/span>.log( state );\n\n    <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">for<\/span> ( <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">var<\/span> i=<span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span>; i&lt;t_max; i++ ) {\n\n        <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">var<\/span> d =  seir_eq( state, i, alpha,beta,gamma, N )\n        <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">var<\/span> Si = state[<span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span>]+d[<span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span>]\n        <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">var<\/span> Ei = state[<span class=\"hljs-number\">1<\/span>]+d[<span class=\"hljs-number\">1<\/span>]\n        <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">var<\/span> Ii = state[<span class=\"hljs-number\">2<\/span>]+d[<span class=\"hljs-number\">2<\/span>]\n        <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">var<\/span> Ri = state[<span class=\"hljs-number\">3<\/span>]+d[<span class=\"hljs-number\">3<\/span>]\n        <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ \u611f\u67d3\u8005\u3092\u767a\u898b\u3057\u3066\u9694\u96e2\u3059\u308b<\/span>\n        dx = Ii * T\n        Ii = Ii - dx\n        Ri = Ri + dx <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ \u514d\u75ab\u8005\u306b\u52a0\u7b97<\/span>\n\n        <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ \u30de\u30a4\u30ca\u30b9\u5024\u3092\u8abf\u7bc0\u3059\u308b<\/span>\n        <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">if<\/span> ( Si &lt; <span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span> ) {\n            Ei = Ei + Si; Si = <span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span>;\n        }\n        <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">if<\/span> ( Ei &lt; <span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span> ) {\n            Ii = Ii + Ei; Ei = <span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span>;\n        }\n        <span class=\"hljs-keyword\">if<\/span> ( Ii &lt; <span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span> ) {\n            Ri = Ri + Ii; Ii = <span class=\"hljs-number\">0<\/span>;\n        }\n\n        state = [ Si, Ei, Ii, Ri ]\n        <span class=\"hljs-comment\">\/\/ console.log( state );<\/span>\n        lst.push( state );\n    }\n}\n<\/code><\/pre>\n<h2 id=\"%E3%82%B0%E3%83%A9%E3%83%95%E5%8C%96%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B\">\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u5316\u3059\u308b<\/h2>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u306b vue.js \u3068\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u306e c3.js \u3092\u8ffd\u52a0\u3057\u305f\u304c\u6b21\u306e\u5f62\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/moonmile.github.io\/seir-model\/\">SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb \u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30bf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_02org.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_02thum.jpg' \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u306f\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u304c 10 \u306e\u3068\u304d\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u300210 \u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u591a\u3044\u5024\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u30c0\u30a4\u30e4\u30e2\u30f3\u30c9\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30bb\u30b9\u53f7\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u9589\u9396\u7a7a\u9593\u306e\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\uff08\u60a3\u8005\u96c6\u56e3\uff09\u306e\u5834\u5408\u304c\u3053\u308c\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u6642\u9593\u3092\u8ffd\u3046\u3054\u3068\u306b\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304c\u5e83\u304c\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6ce8\u76ee\u3057\u3066\u6b32\u3057\u3044\u306e\u306f\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\uff13\u70b9\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u767a\u75c5\u8005\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u30c8\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5de6\u306b\u3042\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\uff08\u9ec4\u8272\uff09\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u306f\u3001\u767a\u75c5\u8005\uff08\u7dd1\uff09\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5de6\u306b\u3042\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306b\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u306e\u4eba\u304c\u56de\u5fa9\u8005\uff08\u8d64\uff09\u3068\u306a\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u3067\u306f\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\uff12\u9031\u9593\u3067\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u767a\u75c5\u8005\uff08\u7dd1\uff09\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u30c8\u304b\u3089\uff12\u9031\u9593\u4ee5\u964d\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u611f\u67d3\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u30c8\u6642\u306b\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u4eba\u304c\u611f\u67d3\u3059\u308b\u8a33\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u5e45\u3092\u53d6\u3063\u3066\uff12\u9031\u9593\u304b\u3089\uff13\u9031\u9593\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u304c\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u82b1\u898b\u3084\u6625\u4f11\u307f\u306e\u30b7\u30fc\u30ba\u304c\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u30c8\u3068\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306b\u30012,3\u9031\u9593\u5f8c\u306b\u6d41\u884c\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u306f\uff1f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7406\u7531\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\u306e\u3053\u3068\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u767a\u75c5\u671f\u9593\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u306e\u524d\u306b\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306b\u306f\u7f79\u60a3\u3055\u305b\u306a\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u306f\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u3082\u7f79\u60a3\u3055\u305b\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3001\u307e\u305f\u306f\u7121\u75c7\u72b6\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3082\u611f\u67d3\u3055\u3048\u308b\u5834\u5408\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u300c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u300d\u304c\u6307\u6458\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u3053\u306e\u305f\u3081\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\u306e\u4eba\u304c\u6d3b\u767a\u306b\u6d3b\u52d5\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u306b\u767a\u75c7\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306b\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u306e\u4eba\u304c\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u3066\u56de\u5fa9\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3068\u3044\u3046\u304b\u3001\u7121\u9650\u306b\u8a08\u7b97\u3092\u7d9a\u3051\u308c\u3070100%\u306e\u4eba\u304c\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u56de\u5fa9\u3057\u3066\u7d42\u308f\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u5148\u306b\u66f8\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u767a\u75c7\u2192\u56de\u5fa9\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u6b7b\u4ea1\u8005\u304c\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u3067\u306f\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306a\u56de\u5fa9\u8005\u6570\u00d7\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u304c\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6570\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u3053\u306e\u305f\u3081\u3001\u7121\u9632\u5099\u306a\u7b56\u306f\u8aa4\u308a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E5%86%8D%E7%94%9F%E7%94%A3%E6%95%B0-r0-%E3%82%92-1-%E3%81%AB%E8%BF%91%E3%81%A5%E3%81%91%E3%82%8B\">\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u3092 1 \u306b\u8fd1\u3065\u3051\u308b<\/h2>\n<p>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0\uff08\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R\uff09\u306f\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u03b2 \u3068\u56de\u5fa9\u7387 \u03b3 \u3068\u306e\u6bd4\u7387\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200323_02org-1.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200323_02thum-1.jpg' \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>R0 \u3092 1.0 \u306b\u8fd1\u3065\u3051\u308b\uff081.0\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u3059\u308b\uff09\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3069\u3046\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\u3001\u6570\u5f0f\u304b\u3089\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e2\u3064\u306e\u624b\u6bb5\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u03b2 \u3092\u4e0b\u3052\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u56de\u5fa9\u7387 \u03b3 \u3092\u4e0a\u3052\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u3092\u4f4e\u304f\u62bc\u3055\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\u306f\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u300c\u8ab0\u304b\u306b\u7f79\u60a3\u3055\u305b\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u6e1b\u3089\u3059\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002\u79fb\u52d5\u3092\u6e1b\u3089\u3059\u3068\u304b\u30013\u3064\u306e\u6761\u4ef6\u304c\u91cd\u306a\u308b\u5834\u6240\u3092\u4f5c\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u884c\u304b\u306a\u3044\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u304c\u305d\u306e\u624b\u6bb5\u3067\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u3082\u3046\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306f\u3001\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\u3092\u4e0a\u3052\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3001\u75c5\u5e8a\u3092\u5897\u3084\u3059\u3001\u4f53\u529b\u3092\u84c4\u3048\u3066\u304a\u3044\u3066\u8efd\u75c7\u3067\u6e08\u307e\u305b\u308b\u306a\u3069\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u3092 10,5,2 \u3068\u5909\u5316\u3055\u305b\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_03org.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_03thum.jpg' \/><\/a><br \/>\n<a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_04org.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_04thum.jpg' \/><\/a><br \/>\n<a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_05org.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_05thum.jpg' \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u767a\u75c7\u8005\uff08\u7dd1\uff09\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u304c\u9650\u308a\u306a\u304f\u53f3\u306b\u305a\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u3064\u307e\u308a\u300c\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3092\u5e73\u3089\u306b\u3059\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u3092\u9650\u308a\u306a\u304f1.0\u306b\u8fd1\u3065\u3051\u308b\uff08\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f1.0\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u3059\u308b\uff09\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u540c\u6642\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3092\u9650\u308a\u306a\u304f\u672a\u6765\u306b\u8ffd\u3044\u3084\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u306e\u6709\u52b9\u306a\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u3084\u4e88\u9632\u63a5\u7a2e\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u307e\u3067\u306e\u6642\u9593\u7a3c\u304e\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E5%86%8D%E7%94%9F%E7%94%A3%E6%95%B0-r0-%E3%81%8C-10-%E3%81%AE%E3%81%A8%E3%81%8D%E3%81%AF\">\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u304c 1.0 \u306e\u3068\u304d\u306f\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u5b9f\u9a13\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u304c 1.0 \u306e\u3068\u304d\u306f\u3069\u3046\u306a\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3092\u898b\u3066\u3044\u304d\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_06org.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_06thum.jpg' \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6570\uff08\u7dd1\uff09\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u304c\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5e73\u3089\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u76f4\u7dda\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u7f79\u60a3\u3057\u305f\u5f8c\u306b\u56de\u5fa9\u3057\u305f\u4eba\u3082\u5168\u7136\u5897\u3048\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306b\u898b\u3048\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306f\u56de\u5fa9\u8005\u304c100\u65e5\u76ee\u306725\u4eba\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u304b\u3089\u5206\u304b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u611f\u67d3\u304c\u307e\u3063\u305f\u304f\u5e83\u304c\u3089\u306a\u3044\u8a33\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u308f\u305a\u304b\u305a\u3064\u611f\u67d3\u306f\u5e83\u304c\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u5bfe\u51e6\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6570\u3068\u306a\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u78ba\u7387\u7684\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u306f\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304b\u3089\u3001\u4f55\u51e6\u304b\u3089\u611f\u67d3\u3059\u308b\u304b\u306f\u5206\u304b\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u3066\u767a\u75c5\u3057\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001\u5341\u5206\u306b\u6cbb\u7642\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u75c5\u5e8a\u304c\u7528\u610f\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3001\u3053\u3068\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"github\">github<\/h2>\n<p>\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306f github <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/moonmile\/seir-model\">moonmile\/seir-model: SEIR model simulator<\/a> \u306b\u516c\u958b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"%E3%81%8A%E3%81%BE%E3%81%91-%E5%AE%9F%E5%8A%B9%E5%86%8D%E7%94%9F%E7%94%A3%E6%95%B0-r-%E3%81%A8%E3%81%AF\">\u304a\u307e\u3051 \u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R \u3068\u306f\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u304b\u3089\u306f\u79c1\u7684\u306a\u30e1\u30e2\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u3068\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R \u306e\u9055\u3044\u3092\u8a18\u8ff0\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u4f1a\u8b70\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6700\u521d\u306e NHK \u3067\u306e\u89e3\u8aac\u3067\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7528\u8a9e\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a00\u8449\u304b\u3089\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306b\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u3092 1.0 \u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u6291\u3048\u308c\u3070\u3001\u306a\u306b\u304b\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u304c\u5e73\u305f\u304f\u306a\u308b\u300d\u3053\u3068\u304c\u7406\u89e3\u3067\u304d\u305f\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u304c\u51fa\u305f\u306e\u304c 2\/24 \u306e NHK \u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_07org.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_07thum.jpg' \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u306e\u6d41\u884c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5143\u30cd\u30bf\u306f\u5f53\u6642\u306e NHK \u306e\u89e3\u8aac\u3067\u306f\u4f55\u51e6\u306b\u3082\u51fa\u3066\u304d\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304c\u3001\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u4f1a\u8b70\u306b\u5317\u5927\u306e\u897f\u6d66\u6559\u6388\u304c\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3068\u3001\u897f\u6d66\u6559\u6388\u306e2017\u306e\u8ad6\u6587\u304b\u3089\u3001SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u306e\u3042\u3068\u3001\u8272\u3005\u306a\u6279\u5224\u3082\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3061\u3001\u6d77\u5916\u3067\u3082\u3053\u306e\u300c\u5e73\u305f\u304f\u3059\u308b\u300d\u56f3\u304c\u3067\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.flattenthecurve.com\/\">Flatten the curve | These guidelines are intended to help Flatten the Curve with the COVID19 outbreak, to help limit spread and reduce the load on hospitals and other healthcare.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_08org.jpg'><img src='http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/images20200324_08thum.jpg' \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u300c\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3092\u5e73\u305f\u304f\u3059\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30a4\u30e1\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u306f\u3001\u306a\u3093\u3089\u6570\u5f0f\u7684\u306a\u6839\u62e0\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3068\u3082\u8aad\u8005\u304c SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u304b\u306f\u5b9a\u304b\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u809d\u5fc3\u306e\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3067\u3066\u304d\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002twitter \u3067 #FlattenTheCurve \u3068\u3044\u3046\u30cf\u30c3\u30b7\u30e5\u30bf\u30b0\u3067\u62e1\u6563\u3055\u308c\u3064\u3064\u3042\u308a\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u6839\u62e0\u306f\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u306b\u3001\u767a\u75c7\u6642\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3092\u4e0b\u3052\u308b\uff1d\u533b\u7642\u5d29\u58ca\u3092\u9632\u3050\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u52b9\u679c\u306f\u540c\u3058\u3060\u3068\u601d\u308f\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u79c1\u304c\u61f8\u5ff5\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3092\u4e0b\u3052\u305f\u6642\u671f\u306e\u6982\u7b97\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044<\/li>\n<li>\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3092\u904e\u304e\u305f\u5f8c\u306e\u767a\u75c7\u6570\u306e\u88fe\u91ce\u304c\u3001\u3044\u3064\u307e\u3067\u7d9a\u304f\u306e\u304b\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u306e\u304c\u554f\u984c\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u307e\u305f\u3001\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u7279\u5fb4\u3068\u3057\u3066\u7121\u75c7\u72b6\u306a\u4eba\u304c\u591a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304b\u3089\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u30920\u4eba\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u307b\u307c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5929\u7136\u75d8\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5168\u3066\u306e\u4eba\u306b\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u3092\u3046\u3063\u3066\u64b2\u6ec5\u3057\u306a\u3044\u9650\u308a 0 \u306b\u306f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u6642\u306b\u300c\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u5bfe\u7b56\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8a00\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u306f\u72b6\u6cc1\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5927\u304d\u304f\u5909\u308f\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3068\u3057\u3066 1.0 \u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u304a\u3055\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3001\u30de\u30af\u30ed\u306e\u5168\u4f53\u3068\u3057\u3066\u767a\u75c7\u8005\u304c\u62bc\u3055\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u306e\u306f\u78ba\u304b\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u500b\u3005\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u5834\u6240\u3001\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u5b63\u7bc0\u3084\u5834\u6240\u306a\u3069\u306e\u30df\u30af\u30ed\u306e\u8996\u70b9\u3067\u898b\u308c\u3070\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u306f\u5927\u304d\u304f\u5909\u308f\u308a\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u6301\u3061\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u305f\u3081\u300c\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u300c\u5b9f\u52b9\u300d\u3092\u4ed8\u3051\u3066\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0 \u306b\u306a\u3093\u3089\u304b\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u639b\u3051\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u4e8b\u524d\u6761\u4ef6\u3092\u52a0\u5473\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\n\u3069\u3046\u3084\u3089\u75ab\u5b66\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306e\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u306f\u3001\u4e8c\u6b21\u611f\u67d3\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u3042\u305f\u308a\u3001\u6700\u8fd1\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u4f1a\u8b70\u3067\u306e\u89e3\u8aac\u3092\u307f\u308b\u3068\u300c\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R\u300d\u3068\u533a\u5225\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8a73\u7d30\u306f2020\u5e743\u670819\u65e5\u4ed8\u3051\u306e\u63d0\u8a00\u3092\u8aad\u3080\u3068\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www3.nhk.or.jp\/news\/special\/coronavirus\/view\/\">\u300c\u611f\u67d3\u62e1\u5927\u5730\u57df\u3067\u306f\u81ea\u7c9b\u691c\u8a0e\u3092\u300d\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u4f1a\u8b70\u304c\u63d0\u8a00\u3010\u5168\u6587\u3011<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570(R0:\u3059\u3078\u3099\u3066\u306e\u8005\u304b\u3099\u611f\u53d7\u6027\u3092\u6709\u3059\u308b\u96c6\u56e3\u306b\u304a\u3044\u30661\u4eba\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304b\u3099\u751f\u307f\u51fa\u3057\u305f\u4e8c\u6b21\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6570\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024)<\/li>\n<li>\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570(\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u306e\u6d41\u884c\u304b\u3099\u9032\u884c\u4e2d\u306e\u96c6\u56e3\u306e\u3042\u308b\u6642\u523b\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u30011\u4eba\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304b\u3099\u751f\u307f\u51fa\u3057\u305f\u4e8c\u6b21\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6570\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u306f\u3001\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u90fd\u5e02\u3067\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u2192 \u90fd\u5e02\u6a5f\u80fd\u3092\u4fdd\u3063\u305f\u307e\u307e\u4f4e\u304f\u4fdd\u3064\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff08\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u306e\u958b\u50ac\u3001\u901a\u52e4\u3084\u901a\u5b66\u306e\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\u306a\u3069\uff09<br \/>\n\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u306f\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3063\u305f\u90fd\u5e02\u3067\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u7387 \u2192 \u7dca\u6025\u3067\u4e0b\u3052\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff08\u5317\u6d77\u9053\u306e\u7dca\u6025\u4e8b\u614b\u5ba3\u8a00\u3001\u30ed\u30c3\u30af\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u3001\u90fd\u5e02\u5c01\u9396\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u533a\u5225\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>3\u9031\u9593\u307b\u3069\u7d4c\u3061\u72b6\u6cc1\u304c\u5909\u308f\u3063\u3066\u304d\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8a71\u3092\u5f15\u304d\u7d9a\u304d SEIR \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092 JS \u3067\u66f8\u304f \u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a3\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u59d4\u54e1\u4f1a\u304b\u3089\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R0\u300d\u3084\u300c\u5b9f\u52b9\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570 R\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a00\u8449\u3067\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4ed6\u306b\u3082\u5c02\u9580 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/archives\/10384\">\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080 <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dev"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10384","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10384"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10384\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10385,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10384\/revisions\/10385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10384"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10384"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10384"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}