{"id":3039,"date":"2012-02-03T15:04:34","date_gmt":"2012-02-02T21:04:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/archives\/3039"},"modified":"2012-02-04T17:13:31","modified_gmt":"2012-02-04T08:13:31","slug":"4%e5%b9%b4%e4%bb%a5%e5%86%85%e3%81%abm7%e7%b4%9a%e3%81%ae%e5%9c%b0%e9%9c%87%e3%81%8c-70-%e3%81%ae%e7%a2%ba%e7%8e%87%e3%81%a7%e7%99%ba%e7%94%9f%e3%81%99%e3%82%8b%e3%80%81%e3%82%92%e6%a4%9c%e7%ae%97","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/archives\/3039","title":{"rendered":"4\u5e74\u4ee5\u5185\u306bM7\u7d1a\u306e\u5730\u9707\u304c 70% \u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u3001\u3092\u691c\u7b97\u3059\u308b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uff2d\uff17\u7d1a\u9996\u90fd\u76f4\u4e0b\u5730\u9707\u3001\uff14\u5e74\u5185\uff17\uff10\uff05\u2026\u6771\u5927\u5730\u9707\u7814 : \u79d1\u5b66 : YOMIURI ONLINE\uff08\u8aad\u58f2\u65b0\u805e\uff09<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.yomiuri.co.jp\/science\/news\/20120122-OYT1T00800.htm\">http:\/\/www.yomiuri.co.jp\/science\/news\/20120122-OYT1T00800.htm<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u691c\u7b97\u300d\u3057\u307e\u3059\uff08\u7b11\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u6628\u5e74\uff13\u6708\uff11\uff11\u65e5\u306e\u6771\u65e5\u672c\u5927\u9707\u707d\u3092\u304d\u3063\u304b\u3051\u306b\u3001\u9996\u90fd\u570f\u3067\u306f\u5730\u9707\u6d3b\u52d5\u304c\u6d3b\u767a\u5316\u3002\u6c17\u8c61\u5e81\u306e\u89b3\u6e2c\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3068\uff11\uff12\u6708\u307e\u3067\u306b\uff2d\uff13\uff5e\uff16\u306e\u5730\u9707\u304c\u5e73\u5747\u3067\uff11\u65e5\u5f53\u305f\u308a\uff11\u30fb\uff14\uff18\u56de\u767a\u751f\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u9707\u707d\u524d\u306e\u7d04\uff15\u500d\u306b\u4e0a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u306e\u5e73\u7530\u76f4(\u306a\u304a\u3057)\u6559\u6388\u3089\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u5730\u9707\u6d3b\u52d5\u306b\u7740\u76ee\u3002\u30de\u30b0\u30cb\u30c1\u30e5\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\uff11\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3054\u3068\u306b\u3001\u5730\u9707\u306e\u767a\u751f\u983b\u5ea6\u304c\uff11\uff10\u5206\u306e\uff11\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5730\u9707\u5b66\u306e\u7d4c\u9a13\u5247\u3092\u6d3b\u7528\u3057\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u8d77\u3053\u308a\u3046\u308b\uff2d\uff17\u306e\u767a\u751f\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u60c5\u5831\u304b\u3089\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>M3\u306e\u5730\u9707\u304c 1.48\u56de\/\u65e5 \u4ee5\u4e0a<\/li>\n<li>\u30de\u30b0\u30cb\u30c1\u30e5\u30fc\u30c9(M)\u304c1\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3054\u3068\u306b\u3001\u767a\u751f\u983b\u5ea6\u304c1\/10 \u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001M7 \u306e\u767a\u751f\u983b\u5ea6\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1.48 x 0.1^4 = 0.000148\u56de\/\u65e5<\/p>\n<p>4\u5e74\u9593(365&#215;4)= 1460\u65e5\u9593\u306b1\u56de\u4ee5\u4e0a\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<p>1.0 &#8211; (1460 \u65e5\u9593\u306b1\u5ea6\u3082\u767a\u751f\u3057\u306a\u3044\u78ba\u7387)<\/p>\n<p>\u306b\u7b49\u3057\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001<\/p>\n<p>1.0 &#8211; (1 &#8211; 0.000148)^1460<\/p>\n<p>\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1.0 &#8211; 0.805657962 = 0.194342038 = 20% \u5f31<\/p>\n<p>\u304a\u3044\u304a\u3044&#8230;\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3059\u304e\u307e\u3059\u306d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u300cM3\u304b\u3089M6\u300d\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u4e2d\u9593\u306eM5.5\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306b1.48\u56de\/\u65e5 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3068\u3057\u3066\u691c\u7b97\u3057\u76f4\u3059\u3068\u3001<\/p>\n<p>1.48 \\times 0.1^1.5 = 0.0468\u56de\/\u65e5<br \/>\n1.0 &#8211; (1-0.0468)^{1460} = \u9650\u308a\u306a\u304f1\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\uff08\u7b11)<\/p>\n<p>\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3082\u3046\u3061\u3087\u3063\u30681\u65e5\u306e\u5730\u9707\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u4f4e\u304f\u306a\u3044\u3068\u99c4\u76ee\u3067\u3059\u306d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5ea6\u306f\u300170% \u3068\u3044\u3046\u78ba\u7387\u304b\u3089\u9006\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>0.7 = 1.0 &#8211; ( 1 &#8211; x )^1460<\/p>\n<p>\u306e\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3092\u89e3\u3051\u3070\u3088\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001<\/p>\n<p>(1-x)^1460 = 0.3<br \/>\n1460 \\times log(1-x) = log 0.3<br \/>\nlog(1-x) = log(0.3)\/1460 = -0.000358136<br \/>\n1-x = 10^-0.000358136 = 0.999175701<br \/>\nx = 0.000824299<\/p>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u30011\u65e5\u3042\u305f\u308a\u306eM7\u306e\u5730\u9707\u3092<\/p>\n<p>0.00082\u56de\/\u65e5<\/p>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u60f3\u5b9a\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u304c\u3069\u308c\u304f\u3089\u3044\u306e\u983b\u5ea6\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\u3001\u300c\u9707\u707d\u524d\u306e\u7d04\uff15\u500d\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8868\u73fe\u304b\u3089\u3001\u9707\u707d\u524d\u306f\u30010.000164\u56de\/\u65e5\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001M3\u306e\u5730\u9707\u304c1.48\u56de\/\u65e5 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3001\u6700\u521d\u306e\u521d\u671f\u5024\u3068\u540c\u3058\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u3046\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3001\u9707\u707d\u524d\u3063\u3066\u30011\u65e5\u306b1\u56de\u306fM3\u306e\u5730\u9707\u3063\u3066\u8d77\u304d\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3063\u3051\uff1f\u3063\u3066\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c&#8230;\u306a\u3044\u3067\u3059\u306d\u3002\u5909\u3067\u3059\u306d\uff57\u3001\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u8a08\u7b97\u306e\u524d\u63d0\u304c\u9593\u9055\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u601d\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30014\u5e74\u4ee5\u5185\u306bM7\u306e\u5730\u9707\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u3068\u304b\u300130\u5e74\u4ee5\u5185\u306bM7\u306e\u5730\u9707\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6839\u62e0\u3082\u5b9f\u306f\u3001\u540c\u3058\u8a08\u7b97\u6cd5\u304b\u3089\u51fa\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3001<\/p>\n<p>3\u670811\u65e5\u4ee5\u964d\u306e\u9996\u90fd\u570f\u306e\u5730\u9707\u6d3b\u52d5\u306e\u5909\u5316\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066 | \u6771\u5927\u5730\u9707\u7814 \u5e83\u5831\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30c1\u5ba4<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/outreach.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp\/eqvolc\/201103_tohoku\/shutoseis\/\">http:\/\/outreach.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp\/eqvolc\/201103_tohoku\/shutoseis\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u306a\u3093\u3060\u304b\u306d\u3047\u3001\u30de\u30b9\u30b3\u30df\u5831\u9053\u3082\u5831\u9053\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5730\u9707\u7814\u3082\u5730\u9707\u7814\u3067\u3059\u306d\u3002\u5927\u96d1\u628a\u3059\u304e\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u307e\u305a\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u306a\u6bd4\u8f03\u6cd5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u9707\u707d\u524d\u306eM3\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u5730\u9707\u78ba\u7387\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u306eM7\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u5730\u9707\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u7d71\u8a08\u60c5\u5831<\/li>\n<li>\u7d4c\u9a13\u5247\u30671\u3064\u30de\u30b0\u30cb\u30c1\u30e5\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3068\u78ba\u7387\u304c10%\u306b\u306a\u308b\u6839\u62e0\uff08\u7d4c\u9a13\u4e0a\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u73fe\u72b6\u306e\u65e5\u5358\u4f4d\u306eM3\u306e\u5730\u9707\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3001\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u308f\u3051\u3067\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u7684\u306b\u99c4\u76ee\u99c4\u76ee\u304b\u3068\uff08\u82e6\u7b11\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u307e\u3001\u514e\u3082\u89d2\u3001\u6771\u5927\u5730\u9707\u7814\u306e\u8a66\u7b97\u3067\u3044\u3048\u3070\u3001\u65e5\u5358\u4f4d\u3067M7\u306e\u5730\u9707\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u3001\u300c0.00082\u56de\/\u65e5\u300d\u3068\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u30021000\u5206\u306e1\u5f31\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u306a\u306e\u3067\u7d50\u69cb\u9ad8\u3044\u898b\u7a4d\u3068\u3044\u3048\u3070\u898b\u7a4d\u3082\u308a\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u6bce\u65e51000\u56de\u30b5\u30a4\u30b3\u30ed\u3092\u5efb\u3057\u3066\u30011\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304c200\u56de\u306b1\u56de\u3050\u3089\u3044\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3048\u3070\u3001\u305d\u308c\u307b\u3069\u3073\u304f\u3073\u304f\u3059\u308b\u3053\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u306d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3061\u306a\u307f\u306b\u300c\u5730\u9707\u7814\u300d\u306e\u767a\u8868\u304c\u5927\u3056\u3063\u3071\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>M3\u5730\u9707\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u304b\u3089M7\u3068\u62e1\u5927\u3055\u305b\u308b\u3068\u304d\u306b\u3001\u9707\u707d\u5f8c\u306e\u4f59\u9707\u3068\u524d\u5146\u3068\u306e\u533a\u5225\u304c\u3067\u304d\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u3088\u3063\u3066\u76f8\u95a2\u306f\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3082\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u95a2\u4fc2\u304c\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u8ad6\u7406\u7684\u601d\u8003\u304c\u3067\u304d\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u8ad6\u7406\u7684\u306a\u624b\u9806\u3092\u8e0f\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u25a0\u88dc\u8a18<\/p>\n<p>3\u670811\u65e5\u4ee5\u964d\u306e\u9996\u90fd\u570f\u306e\u5730\u9707\u6d3b\u52d5\u306e\u5909\u5316\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066 | \u6771\u5927\u5730\u9707\u7814 \u5e83\u5831\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30c1\u5ba4<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/outreach.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp\/eqvolc\/201103_tohoku\/shutoseis\/\">http:\/\/outreach.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp\/eqvolc\/201103_tohoku\/shutoseis\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u3092\u66f8\u3044\u305f\u5f8c\u306b\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u3055\u308c\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u8ffd\u8a18\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u8a98\u767a\u5730\u9707\u300d\u3068\u300c\u4f59\u9707\u300d\u3092\u533a\u5225\u305b\u305a\u306b\u63a8\u6e2c\u5024\u3092\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c\u5927\u304d\u3044\u304b\u306a\u3068\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u306e9\u6708\u3067\u51fa\u3057\u305f\u8a08\u7b97\u3060\u305d\u3046\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u518d\u5ea6\u4eca\u5e74\u306b\u5165\u3063\u305f\u6570\u5024\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u76f4\u3057\u3066\u3001\u63a8\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u307b\u3057\u3044\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059&#8230;\u3068\u601d\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b9a\u70b9\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7d4c\u904e\u89b3\u6e2c\u3092\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u5897\u6e1b\u304c\u5206\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u306e\u304c\u554f\u984c\u304b\u3068\u3002\u9707\u707d\u524d\u3068\u306e\u76f4\u63a5\u6bd4\u8f03\u3060\u3068\u3001\u9707\u707d\u6642\u306e\u4f59\u9707\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u5ea6\u304c\u5206\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u9707\u707d\u5f8c\u304b\u3089\u306e\u6570\u56de\u306e\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\u304b\u3089\u63a8\u79fb\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u30d9\u30bf\u30fc\u304b\u3068\u3002\u307e\u3042\u3001\u5730\u9707\u306b\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001\u7d20\u4eba\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3053\u308c\u307e\u3067\u3002\u78ba\u7387\u306b\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u306f\u30bb\u30df\u30d7\u30ed\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uff2d\uff17\u7d1a\u9996\u90fd\u76f4\u4e0b\u5730\u9707\u3001\uff14\u5e74\u5185\uff17\uff10\uff05\u2026\u6771\u5927\u5730\u9707\u7814 : \u79d1\u5b66 : YOMIURI ONLINE\uff08\u8aad\u58f2\u65b0\u805e\uff09 http:\/\/www.yomiuri.co.jp\/science\/news\/20120122-OYT1T00800.h &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/archives\/3039\">\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080 <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-etc"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3039"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3039\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3040,"href":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3039\/revisions\/3040"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.moonmile.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}